Mind conditioning polls?
Team Unity (TU) has accused the surveys shown by major media outlets as a form of trending, since they are only highlighting the areas where Genuine Opposition (GO) is favorably leading.
The recent quick counts indicated that majority of Genuine Opposition (GO) senatorial candidates are leading the polls. For instance, the AMA quick count recorded: GO-7, Team Unity –2, and Independent – 2. The STI: GO- 9, TU- 2, and Independent – 2. The SWS exit polls showed: 6-GO, 4 TU, 2 independents. The NAMFREL count showed: 6-GO, 4-TU, 2-Independent.
Scientific or trending?
Do the media really condition us that GO bets are leading the polls? ABS-CBN and GMA hired STI and AMA, respectively to perform the quick counts and obtain 10 percent of the overall counts.
GMA’s 24 Oras reported that AMA quick count has 200 volunteers all over the country to tally the votes. While the teachers are counting the votes, the volunteers are tallying them. The STI quick count works the same way with the AMA.
On the other hand, the Pulse Asia targeted 10,620 completed response forms from 79 provinces less than a day after polling precincts closed. ABS-CBN interactive added “Pulse Asia chose 15 respondents per precinct in urban districts and 12 respondents per precinct in rural districts. Once a house is randomly chosen, the interviewer randomly selects a voter. Indelible ink on the voter’s finger will indicate that he or she has voted.” 1,000 field interviewers were deployed to conduct the polls not only in NCR, but also throughout the country.
Politically thwarted?
Despite the scientific and accurate delivery of polls, TU members still doubt its credibility. Senatorial candidate Prospero Pichay said the media are playing with the counts of his colleagues. According to a Manila Standard news article, “The survey company wants to show that Pichay is supposedly weak in Mindanao so that if he scores a big win in the island, the opposition could capitalize on it and declare there is cheating,” said Buluan Mayor Jong Mangudadatu of the Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat.
TU Spokesperson Tonypet Albano echoed Pichay’s sentiments and challenged the media to also count the votes in Visayas and Mindanao with the same percentage. Albano said that majority of votes counted by media outlets are only based in NCR. Albano is confident that the towns and municipalities have religiously followed the command votes.
But Gordon, in an Inquirer article, said that polls don’t reflect trending. Sen. Richard Gordon said “the poor showing of TU senatorial candidates in Metro Manila and other parts of the country in the unofficial quick counts showed the ‘widespread dissatisfaction’ of the urban voters with the President.”
Legal issues
Many bills before have sought to ban the election polls. In 1998, the COMELEC passed a secret resolution to restrain anyone from conducting an exit poll during the 1998 Presidential Election. “The discovery of the resolution by an ABS-CBN reporter foiled the COMELEC’s plan to publicly proclaim the exit poll ban just before the Election Day,” The LaSallian reported.
Despite the COMELEC’s move, the Supreme Court justified on the 1998 elections decision that “the holding of exit polls and the dissemination of their results through mass media constitute an essential part of the freedoms of speech and of the press.” Hence, the COMELEC cannot ban them totally in the guise of clean and honest elections. Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of the polls have motivated and upgraded the media outlets to continue airing the quick counts and exit polls during elections.
All counts lead to COMELEC
The surveys conducted by STI, AMA, and NAMFREL show that Escudero, Legarda, Villar, Pangilinan, and Lacson are leading the votes. There are only differences between the 9th and 14th places, in which the candidates may swap places.
These independent bodies show the consistency of tallies throughout the region. Despite the showing of quick counts or exit polls to the public, the COMELEC has still the final say.
Sources:
Philippine Daily Inquirer
ABS-CBN interactive
Manila Standard
The LaSallian (June 2004 issue) 
